*Hormuz, the Fuse of the World: From Shadow War to the Threshold of Open Conflict*
_Abstract_
At the heart of the global energy system, the Strait of Hormuz is once again the epicenter of a crisis that intertwines history, strategy, and hybrid warfare. Between attacks on vessels, escalating cross-pressures, and Israel’s increasingly assertive role, the risk of sliding into open conflict is rising. Italy is observing and preparing, while Lebanon reopens a fault line that was never truly closed.
*Cristina Di Silvio*
There is a point in the world where geography stops being a backdrop and becomes a permanent strategic decision. The Strait of Hormuz is exactly that: a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, through which a crucial share of global energy flows—estimated at around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. It is a thin line that, every time it fractures, forces a rethinking of the entire international balance.
This time, however, the crisis does not take the classic form of a blockade or a direct confrontation. Instead, it has the structure of continuous pressure a threshold that moves closer and farther away without ever stabilizing. In recent hours, maritime security sources and reporting by Reuters have described merchant vessels being hit or otherwise coming under threat during transit, with crews forced into immediate decisions: slow down, divert, or proceed through increasingly uncertain corridors.
It is not a minor detail that, within the same timeframe, more than a dozen tankers still managed to cross the Strait, according to Reuters data, but under conditions operators described as “unpredictable” and highly volatile. Some sanctioned vessels reportedly transited alongside unprotected commercial ships, while others received radio warnings from Iranian units. Navigation has ceased to be purely logistical—it has become real-time negotiation.
Analyses reported by the Associated Press add another layer: this is not a declared blockade, but a strategy of progressive interdiction. A model that allows Iran to exert control and pressure without formally closing the Strait, thereby preserving political and military flexibility. In parallel, the Revolutionary Guard is believed to have intensified disruption operations and selective control over maritime traffic.
Politically, Tehran’s line is explicit: the Strait is a sovereign and non-negotiable lever. Its use is directly tied to sanctions and to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Washington maintains a posture of maximum pressure, while keeping the door open to negotiations that remain fragile, intermittent, and lacking a stable framework.
Within this already unstable environment, another factor is amplifying regional tension: Israel’s role in the strategic confrontation with Iran. This is not a single theater, but a network of pressures stretching across multiple fronts simultaneously, from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Gulf, fueling a dynamic of increasingly rapid action and reaction. The result is a progressive compression of diplomatic space, where every incident risks triggering escalation.
*The Gulf and the Levant: One Fault Line*
The Hormuz crisis can no longer be read in isolation. It is now intertwined with developments in the Levant, where tensions have reached a new critical point.
In southern Lebanon, an attack on a UNIFIL patrol resulted in the death of a French soldier and the injury of three others. French President Emmanuel Macron directly linked responsibility to Hezbollah, while Lebanese authorities launched a formal investigation.
But the most significant fact is that the incident is not isolated. In the same timeframe, Israeli airstrikes hit targets in southern Lebanon, exposing the fragility of a ceasefire that increasingly resembles a temporary suspension of hostilities rather than genuine stabilization. Hezbollah, for its part, rejects any meaningful negotiation with Israel and reaffirms a posture of resistance that keeps tensions high on the ground.
This is where the two crises begin to structurally overlap. The Gulf becomes the theater of energy and maritime pressure, while Lebanon remains the direct military contact point. Iran acts as the strategic hinge between both scenarios, while Israel exerts constant pressure across the regional arc. The United States maintains the diplomatic framework, but without managing to stabilize it.
Meanwhile, Europe operates in an intermediate space between observation and operational preparation. Italy, under Giorgia Meloni, has expressed willingness to participate in a naval mission to secure the Strait, while conditioning any decision on parliamentary approval. This signals a potential shift in posture: from passive observation to direct presence in a high-intensity theater.
The decisive point today is no longer only crisis management, but its autonomous evolution. None of the actors involved appears to seek open war, yet the sum of their actions produces the opposite effect: a self-reinforcing system in which every move triggers a response, and every response raises the next threshold.
In this sense, Hormuz is no longer just a strategic route. It has become a global indicator of instability. And what it measures, increasingly, is not only the passage of ships, but the world’s ability to remain within the boundaries of crisis without crossing them. It is no longer a regional crisis. It is a stress test of the global system.
