*Italy amid Energy Crises, Hybrid Warfare and the Reconfiguration of the Global Order*
By Cristina Di Silvio
The international system is entering an accelerated transition toward an unstable multipolar order, where regional crises, great-power competition and energy vulnerabilities converge into a single strategic space. Security is no longer a separate policy domain, but a continuum integrating defence, energy, technology and critical infrastructure. Within this framework, Italy is exposed along overlapping fault lines spanning the Atlantic, the broader Mediterranean and the Indo-Pacific, facing increasing vulnerability to interdependent systemic shocks. The tension between Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni reflects the transformation of the Euro-Atlantic axis into a more transactional environment, where cohesion increasingly depends on the operational contribution of allies to global crisis management. The Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point of the global energy system, carrying roughly one fifth of global oil flows. Instability in the area continues to affect prices, inflation and global market stability. Meanwhile, the Lebanon–Israel dialogue mediated by Marco Rubio represents an attempt to contain escalation in the broader Mediterranean, aimed at preventing spillover into critical energy corridors. Italy’s defence cooperation with Israel, established through the 2005 memorandum, has long supported industrial and technological integration in aerospace, cyber and advanced systems. The suspension of its automatic renewal does not signal a rupture, but a strategic recalibration in a highly volatile regional environment. US–China competition continues to extend into the Middle East, turning economic interdependence into geopolitical leverage. Political communication is also increasingly shaping deterrence dynamics and risk perception. The European Union remains constrained by a structural cohesion deficit, while regional actors such as Turkey strengthen autonomous postures that further fragment the international system. In this environment, Italy operates within an unstable equilibrium shaped by risk management, alliance constraints and rising systemic complexity.
